Graded in public.
CERES forecasts the risk of a food crisis in 43 countries, 90 days ahead. Every forecast is stored before the outcome and graded in public afterwards. Here is what the ledger holds today.
The CERES ledger today.
Read from api.ceres.northflow.no on 5 November 2026.
- 1,376
- Forecasts on the record, each logged before its outcome
- 157
- Graded against the observed outcome
- 502
- Past their 90 days, waiting for the outcome to be published
- 430
- Still inside their 90 day horizon
The scores.
Read from the ledger when the page is built: the Brier score, skill against the base rate, interval coverage, and Tier-1 precision and recall.
Open the metrics- 0.218
- Brier score over 157 graded forecasts. 0 is perfect, lower is better.
- −0.258
- Skill against sample climatology. Above zero beats always forecasting the base rate.
- 81.5%
- Share of outcomes inside the 90 percent interval
- 62 of 62
- Tier-1 alerts that matched the outcome
- 50.8%
- Tier-1 recall: qualifying outcomes flagged in advance
How a forecast is graded.
A forecast becomes gradeable 90 days after it is made and is graded as soon as the observed classification for that period is published. The outcomes come from FEWS NET and are compatible with IPC; they run two to four months behind, so the first horizons, which closed in April 2026, were graded from September 2026.
Forecasts are scored against persistence, the rule that copies the last observed phase forward. On a series that barely moves, that rule already scores high, so the claim worth making is the gap above it. Every forecaster is scored on the targets all of them can reach, and each target dropped is recorded with the reason.
The record, by date.
Launches, publications and validations since 2025.
- September 2026
- CERES publishes its first prospective grades as the first 90 day horizons close.
- August 2026
- CERES names the code behind every forecast, and gains a scoring engine that holds every forecaster to the same targets against persistence.
- April 2026
- ORION starts following 9,868 infrastructure assets in Ukraine.
- March 2026
- CERES starts weekly forecasts for 43 countries, the preprint is published on arXiv, PSE is released under Apache 2.0, the groundtruth notebook is published, and the forecasts are published on OCHA's Humanitarian Data Exchange.
- February 2026
- The OQTOPUS evaluation is delivered to the University of Osaka, MARVIS completes its hindcast, climval 0.1.0 is released on PyPI and Mission Data Pipeline is published on GitHub.
- January 2026
- The HGE Core API goes into production, and the summary of the HGE run over Gaia DR3 is written.
- Late 2025
- Laplace is deployed as a working platform, and the evidence verification of HGE passes its tests against six attack vectors.