The claim comes first.
Every system here works the same way. It writes down what it expects, stores it where it cannot be changed and lets the outcome decide. The engine that does this is HGE.
Logged before the answer is known.
A forecast is only worth something if you can count how often it was right. So every CERES forecast gets a permanent ID and goes into a ledger before the outcome exists, and the ledger can be written once and never rewritten.
When the outcome is published, the forecast is graded against it in public, and both stay side by side in the ledger for anyone to count.
The cycle.
HGE closes the loop the scientific method describes, under the limits of a real instrument.
Read about HGE- Hypothesis
- A testable claim from what is known, with its bounds, its uncertainty and what would prove it wrong.
- Experiment
- Designed for the most expected information within what the instrument, the budget and the rules allow.
- Execution
- Deterministic and tracked from the first byte. Identical inputs give identical outputs.
- Update
- The result moves the confidence in each hypothesis and shapes the next round.
Signed, and replayable.
Every HGE run produces a signed evidence bundle. This part is operational and has been attacked on purpose.
- Signatures
- Ed25519 signatures and SHA-256 integrity hashes on every bundle.
- Replay
- Any result can be run again from the same inputs and give the same output, so a reviewer does not have to trust us.
- Verification contract
- Five steps with audit invariants and policy gates between generating, storing and verifying a bundle.
- Red team
- Generation, storage and verification were tested against six attack vectors in January 2026.
- Provenance
- A trail aligned with W3C PROV from ingestion to conclusion, with every transformation and gate on it.
- Code identity
- Each CERES forecast names the commit that produced it.
Two engines, many systems.
HGE forms and tests hypotheses. PSE fuses the observations underneath. A new field costs an adapter, not a new platform.
Alignment is not certification.
Northflow holds no formal certification. Where we name GDPR, NIS2, ISO/IEC 27001, DORA or ISO 22301, we describe the design we build toward, not an audit, an accreditation or an approval. Institutions should run their own assessment for their own context.
HGE runs in three governance modes, disabled, logging and enforced, so an institution can watch the rules before it lets them stop a run. Access control, encryption with institutional key management, incident response and continuity planning exist as reference designs, not as services.
We publish evidence and keep some of the recipe: internal ranking heuristics, the operating parameters of a deployment and the security mechanisms that would weaken tamper resistance if disclosed.
Check it yourself.
The open parts are built to be checked directly.